Florida TaxWatch’s economic forecast projects a 5-year look at Florida’s numbers

or Florida TaxWatch The report projects that the number of people moving to Florida will begin to slow by 2028.

The government’s watchdog group is launching a new forecast of the state’s economic outlook. In the initial report in what will be regular quarterly forecasts, Florida TaxWatch said the state’s population will continue to grow. But the pace of this growth will begin ease off.

Population growth from 2023 to 2028 is expected to increase by about 1.45 million people, TaxWatch predicts. This means that the current population of 22.7 million will increase to around 24.1 million in 2028.

But the rush to move to Florida by out-of-state residents will start to cool a bit. In 2023, an estimated 884 people commuted to the Sunshine State every day. But that figure is likely to drop to 820 people immigrating to Florida on a daily basis. Many people have also started leaving Florida for other states, accounting for a net decrease in migration, the TaxWatch report said.

The TaxWatch analysis said Florida’s lack of income tax and warm climate have long fueled the growing number of people moving to the state. But in recent years, higher living costs—most notably, rising housing costs—will lead to a slowdown in net migration. Other factors are also driving up the costs of living in Florida.

“Recently, a growing number of Floridians are leaving the state, often citing rising costs of living, rising property taxes, rising property and insurance costs, rising housing costs, worsening traffic and events more frequent and severe weather events”, the report states.

Despite the slowdown in migration to Florida, gross domestic product (GDP) and employment will still be growing in the state. But the economic picture will begin to retreat from the current rapid acceleration.

GDP for Florida had a muscular growth rate of 4.6% in 2023. TaxWatch predicts economic projects that will soon begin to decline. As of 2025, this GDP growth rate will slow to around 1.6% and may see a slight rebound to 1.9% by 2027 going into 2028.

After all, the CEO of Florida TaxWatch Dominic Calabro warned that Floridians should not be complacent about any perceived guarantee of accelerated economic growth that outpaces other areas of the U.S.

“Currently, Florida’s economic growth continues to outpace other states across the country, and we also boast the 14th largest economy in the world. This formidable status can certainly be attributed, in no small part, to conservative policies our state leaders’ fiscal and strategic response to the COVID-19 pandemic. But the question remains: is it sustainable over the next several years?” Calabria said.

The employment picture will reflect the same pace, with a stable job picture but significantly slower growth and rising unemployment rates. TaxWatch’s analysis projects that the number of people in the Sunshine State’s workforce will grow from 9.8 million in 2023 to 10.4 million in 2028.

The unemployment outlook will reflect slowing job growth, with the 2.8% unemployment figure in 2023 rising to 4.3% in 2026. TaxWatch analysts predict the unemployment rate will likely stabilize from there, set at around 4.2% in 2028.

This unemployment rate projection reflects Florida’s real-time monthly unemployment figures. The Department of Economic Opportunity recently released the total unemployment rate for APRIL. The unemployment rate rose to 3.3% statewide, a slight increase from that march figure of 3.2%, which was also an increase of 0.1 points year-on-year last month.

However, TaxWatch’s forecast predicts that the number of new jobs created in Florida will slow significantly from the 2023 figure of 323,000 to 130,300 new jobs in 2028. The only area that could fluctuate more than other in the numbers of jobs is the increase in income. The 2023 figure of 5% revenue growth could rise to a peak of 6.2% in 2025 and then decline to 4.8% in 2028.

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